Branch Secretary :

Inflation to reach 3.4% CPI this year

NIESR: 'households will feel the pinch'


Inflation will hit 3.4% CPI later this year according to the respected National Institute Economic and Social Research (NIESR) in a report published today.  According to Simon Kirby Head of Macro Economic Forecasting at NIESR, “households will feel the pinch from rising consumer price inflation.”


It is important to note that this projection is given in terms of the CPI measure rather than the Retail Price Index (RPI) that Unite prefers to use for pay negotiations.  The projection is broadly in line with other estimates and there is already a rising rate of inflation.




Pay settlements lower than the rate of inflation result in real terms pay cuts which housing workers will find difficult to absorb.  One employer in the sector, (Family Mosaic, soon to merge with Peabody) has recognised the stressful impact of dealing with stretched finances and low pay; noting that stress is largest single cause of working days lost due to sickness.


They have opened counselling services previously only available to tenants and service users to their employees.  That is preferable to the increasingly bullying approach to sick leave being taken by other employers in the housing sector. But the real solution must lie in more realistic pay settlements.


4% now


Housing associations continue to record surpluses year after year and senior executives repeatedly award themselves pay settlements far in excess of inflation; this is not a sector that cannot afford to do the right thing by its staff.  That is why Unite is campaigning for 4% increases in the social housing sector.


Paul Kershaw


Read about the 4 for all pay campaign here


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